The Elo system assumes each player has a normal distribution of performance around their rating. The expected score uses a logistic curve: a 400-point gap means the stronger player's expected score is about 0.91, so winning is highly probable, but not a "sure thing"—in my village chess tournaments, I've seen underdogs win when the favourite gets overconfident. The K-factor just controls how much a single game adjusts the rating; a high K means volatile ratings. Studying this in game theory, I see the maths is clean, but life, like a tricky blouse fitting, always needs room for surprise.
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